Is Rising Myopia Driving a Global Surge in Glaucoma? What the Latest Research Reveals
- Richard Kadri-Langford
- 56 minutes ago
- 3 min read
Glaucoma is one of the world’s leading causes of irreversible blindness, but a new study published in the American Journal of Ophthalmology reveals something even more urgent: the global rise in myopia is set to dramatically increase glaucoma cases over the coming decades
The study is a large-scale systematic review, meta‑analysis, and global projection model examining how many people will be affected by open‑angle glaucoma (OAG) between now and 2060. It analysed:
77 population-based studies on glaucoma prevalence
57 studies tracking global myopia trends
United Nations demographic data
The goal was to answer one crucial question:
How will the worldwide increase in myopia contribute to the future burden of glaucoma?
Key Finding 1: Global Glaucoma Cases Will More Than Double by 2060
According to the study, among adults aged 40+, global glaucoma numbers will rise from:
80.5 million in 2024
to
186.6 million in 2060
This is a huge jump—but not all of it is due to ageing populations. In fact, the study reveals something much more concerning about myopia.
Key Finding 2: Nearly 30% of the Increase Is Caused by the Myopia Epidemic
The research shows that 28.9 million additional glaucoma cases—about 27–30% of the total increase—will directly result from rising myopia rates worldwide.
Why? Because myopia changes the shape and structure of the eye in ways that make it more vulnerable to glaucoma. And as more people become myopic—especially children—the number of future glaucoma patients rises too.
Key Finding 3: High Myopia Will Trigger Millions of Early-Onset Glaucoma Cases
One of the most alarming findings from the study is the projected rise in glaucoma among young adults.
By 2060, the authors estimate 6.1 million cases of early-onset open-angle glaucoma among people aged 20–39, largely due to high myopia.
This means that glaucoma—once considered a disease of older adults—will increasingly affect younger people in the prime of their lives.
Why Does Myopia Increase the Risk of Glaucoma?
It’s well established that myopia, especially moderate to high levels, raises the risk of developing glaucoma. This is supported not only by the 2026 projection study but also by multiple meta-analyses. For example, a 2022 dose‑response meta-analysis showed that:
Even low myopia increases glaucoma risk (OR ~1.50)
High myopia increases risk more than fourfold (OR ~4.14)
Each additional 1 dioptre of myopia raises glaucoma risk by about 20% [ajo.com]
The reasons include:
1. Structural Stretching of the Eye
Myopic eyes are physically longer, which stretches and weakens tissues in the optic nerve area—making the nerve more vulnerable to damage.
2. Higher Susceptibility to Pressure-Related Damage
Even when eye pressure is normal, highly myopic eyes are more sensitive to pressure changes.
3. Changes in Optic Nerve Shape
High myopia can distort the optic disc, making early glaucoma harder to detect and easier to progress unnoticed.
Which Regions Will Be Affected Most?
The study shows that East Asia will experience the largest increase in glaucoma cases due to extremely high myopia rates in children and young adults. Prevalence there is expected to rise by over 50% by 2060.
However, myopia is rising everywhere—including the UK, Europe, and North America—meaning no region is immune.
Why This Matters for Parents Today
Today’s children are growing up in environments where:
They spend less time outdoors
They use screens from a very early age
Schoolwork requires prolonged near focus
Urban living reduces natural light exposure
All these factors increase the risk of developing myopia early—and the younger myopia begins, the more severe it tends to become.
This means today’s children are on track to become tomorrow’s high‑risk glaucoma patients.
But with proper awareness and early action, we can change this trajectory.
If you want to understand how to protect your child's vision and lower their long-term risk of glaucoma and other eye diseases, visit our Complete Guide to Myopia Control.
Global Glaucoma Prevalence: Burden and Projection to 2060
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